A report produced by the UK Met Office and released on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year ever recorded.
It also found there is a 91 per cent likelihood that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels during at least one of the next five years.
The 1.5°C mark is a key benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change, with scientists warning that exceeding it for prolonged periods would sharply increase the risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, food insecurity and displacement.
Climate goals still attainable
Such temporary breaches do not mean the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable since the accord refers to warming sustained over decades rather than individual years.
Still, the forecasts underscore the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events.
Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The report said there is also a 75 per cent chance that the average warming across the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.
“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Leon Hermanson, the report’s lead author.
Melting of Arctic ice sheets, like those in Greenland (pictured) is accelerating as global temperatures rise.
Arctic warming accelerates
Projections that the Arctic will continue heating far faster than the rest of the planet are also ringing alarm bells.
Temperatures across the region during the next five northern hemisphere winters are forecast to average 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline – more than three-and-a-half times the projected global average increase over the same period.
Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea and Sea of Okhotsk. Sea ice loss matters because it accelerates warming by reducing the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight, while also disrupting ecosystems, weather patterns and livelihoods in polar regions.
Shifting rainfall patterns
The report pointed to widening shifts in global rainfall patterns consistent with a warming climate.
Higher-than-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.
Wetter conditions are also likely at higher northern latitudes during upcoming winter seasons.
The forecasts are intended to help governments, regional climate centres and national weather agencies plan for risks that are no longer distant projections, but increasingly part of the world’s near-term climate outlook.
The report was produced by the UK Met Office as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction.
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