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What happened in Makkah on Friday was more than the signing of a defence agreement. It could mark the emergence of a new strategic equation in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan signalling a stronger determination to shape their own security architecture. At Al-Safa Palace, following Tawaf around the Kaaba, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif signed a pact carrying a clear message: an attack on one partner would be treated as a threat to all. Formally, the agreement is a defence pact. Strategically, however, it could signal a significant shift in the region’s balance of power.The timing is particularly important. Saudi Arabia’s confidence in Washington as its ultimate security guarantor has increasingly been tested. Since February, Iran has targeted Saudi Arabia with missiles and through allied groups, including the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq. Attacks on oil facilities and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, through which around 20% of the world’s oil passes, have further intensified concerns over Gulf security. Against this backdrop, Riyadh has increasingly looked beyond its traditional security arrangements. Pakistan brings decades of military co-operation with Saudi Arabia and, crucially, is the only Muslim-majority nuclear-armed state. Turkiye, meanwhile, possesses the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato)’s second-largest military and has emerged as an important defence partner for Riyadh. The agreement therefore carries three important strategic messages. First is deterrence. By bringing Islamabad and Ankara closer to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia is signalling that any future attack could have consequences extending well beyond its borders. Second is strategic autonomy. The pact demonstrates that Saudi Arabia is increasingly prepared to strengthen its own defence capabilities and diversify its security partnerships rather than relying exclusively on Washington. Third is symbolism. The decision to sign the agreement in Makkah gives it a significance that extends beyond conventional military co-operation, linking the alliance to the protection of Islam’s holiest sites and reinforcing its political and religious symbolism.The development could have repercussions well beyond the three signatories. A stronger Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani alignment may push Iran to deepen its strategic and military ties with China and Russia. Beijing and Moscow, in turn, could justify a greater role in the Gulf to preserve regional balance and prevent any single power from controlling vital energy routes. The result could be increased military co-operation, advanced weapons transfers, satellite capabilities and naval exercises, gradually turning the Gulf into a new arena of global strategic competition between competing power blocs. From the perspective of Henry Kissinger’s realpolitik, such a development would represent a delicate challenge for Washington. His emphasis on balance-of-power politics suggests that the United States would have an interest in neither fully embracing nor directly confronting the emerging alliance, but rather in using it as leverage for diplomacy while preventing its military dimension from escalating into a wider confrontation. Ultimately, the Makkah Agreement may not resolve the Gulf’s longstanding security dilemma. Instead, it could transform it, from a predominantly regional confrontation between Iran and Saudi Arabia into a broader strategic contest involving the US and its allies on one side, and China, Russia and Iran on the other. What appears today to be a defence agreement could therefore become an early indicator of a new strategic order taking shape in the Gulf. Source link
A defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan establishes a new security alliance seeking to deter a bellicose Iran, offset an unreliable US and send a message to Israel, analysts say.As the Middle East war drags on, this alliance binds three Sunni powers — all allies of the United States — with a Nato-style clause that considers any attack on one country as an attack on all.Analysts doubt this provision will be enforced immediately, however, as the trio seeks a resolution to the war, with Pakistan and Turkiye acting as intermediaries.So what does the agreement mean in practical terms?Nearly six months into the Middle East war, the US has failed to deliver a knockout blow to Iran, and Tehran continues to choke off traffic in the Strait of Hormuz while its Houthi allies disrupt shipping in the Red Sea.This reality has upended the region’s security architecture — forcing a rethink of decades of conventional wisdom rooted in US military supremacy.Despite the archipelago of US bases across the region, American forces have struggled to intercept all of the drones and ballistic missiles fired by Iran and its proxies.The new alliance shows “American deterrence has been significantly weakened and that the Iranian threat will increasingly need to be managed by regional powers”, wrote Ali Shihabi, a political analyst close to the Saudi government.Since the onset of the war, Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Turkiye, with whom it previously had fraught ties, as well as Egypt and Pakistan. The four nations have supported mediation in the conflict.”The three countries are unusually complementary,” said Andreas Krieg, a lecturer in security at King’s College London.Oil-rich Saudi Arabia has wealth “but limited indigenous military-industrial depth”, he told AFP.Turkiye and Pakistan, meanwhile, face finance constrictions, but have powerful militaries.”Turkiye has technology and manufacturing capacity but needs markets and investment. Pakistan has manpower, military institutional depth and nuclear deterrence, but needs financing and industrial opportunities,” he said.The trio cannot replace the United States, but they are bridging a gap because Washington will not “restrain Israel or insulate Gulf infrastructure from Iranian retaliation”.It is in Saudi Arabia’s interest to seek “several layers of security rather than one American umbrella”, Krieg said, with the kingdom at the centre of this new alliance.With these resources combined, the alliance packs a powerful punch, in theory at least.The trio are unlikely to attack Iran should it repeat its strikes on Saudi Arabia.Pakistan, for one, has not hit its neighbour despite signing a similar defence pact with the kingdom last year.”Turkiye and Pakistan will not fight Iran. These countries view themselves as ‘stabilisers’ and want to create a political momentum to push for that,” wrote Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution.Hesham Alghannam, a Saudi security analyst and researcher, agreed that neither country was likely to engage offensively in the short term, but drew a distinction between what the agreement “can deliver now versus what it aspires to become”.”If proxy attacks on Saudi territory continue and escalate, I would expect Pakistan to deepen its air defence and advisory role inside the kingdom, and Turkiye to accelerate defence-industrial transfers,” he said.He added that the “pact changes the calculus for anyone considering continued strikes on Saudi infrastructure”.Saudi Arabia has grown closer to Pakistan and Turkiye as deep divisions plague the Gulf, even as it reels from repeated attacks by Iran and its allies.Saudi Arabia and the UAE were embroiled in a public rift before the war, and though they recently appeared to reconcile, the UAE is likely to be wary of the new pact, analysts say.The US has long sought to build on the Abraham Accords that saw the UAE, Bahrain and others normalise relations with Israel, pushing for a regional alliance that integrates its close ally.But the new defence pact consolidates major US allies into an alternative security architecture that rejects Israel’s hegemony, analysts said.Pakistan and Turkiye have been vocal against Israel, while Saudi Arabia has insisted it will not normalise unless Israel agrees to a path to Palestinian statehood.”Washington would have wanted a security architecture that includes Israel and they’re still keen for Saudi Arabia to normalise ties,” said HA Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute.”This alliance doesn’t point to that in the slightest.” Related Story Source link
Chancellor Friedrich Merz said yesterday that if the energy crisis sparked by the Middle East war dragged on, Germany might have to keep running coal-fired power plants longer than planned.Germany has committed as part of its climate plans to gradually shutting down plants fired by anthracite and lignite and complete the coal phase-out by 2038 at the latest.’If the energy crisis continues and a shortage actually occurs, we may even have to keep existing coal-fired power plants online for longer,’ Merz told a forum in Frankfurt organised by the FAZ newspaper.’We have to supply this country with electricity. I am not prepared to jeopardise the core of our industry just because we have decided on phase-out plans that have become unrealistic.’Europe's biggest economy has for decades pushed an energy transition away from fossil fuels and nuclear energy by building up wind, solar and other clean and renewable energy sources.While the Merz government has pledged to stick to national climate targets, it has prioritised boosting the stagnating economy and scrapped some green energy initiatives.Under Merz, Germany has lobbied for the EU to weaken the phase-out of combustion engine car sales, proposed ending subsidies for rooftop solar panels and reversed a law mandating green heating for buildings.His Economy and Energy Minister, Katherina Reiche, speaking at an oil and gas conference in Houston, Texas this week, called for more ‘flexibility’ in EU plans to reach carbon neutrality by 2050, sparking protests at home and abroad.Yesterday, Merz said he was committed to the further expansion of renewable energies, but said they must be supplemented by new gas-fired power plants.Under ex-chancellor Angela Merkel, Germany moved to shut down nuclear power in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima disaster.Merz said yesterday the decommissioned reactors would have to stay shut for technical reasons.But he also said that he envisions Germany participating in research on small modular nuclear reactors, and, ultimately, building nuclear fusion reactors. Source link
Ministers pose for a family photo on the second day of the G7 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Vaux-de-Cernay…
Austria’s Gerfried Puck delivered a standout performance in the CSI5* Jump-Off feature class at the Al Shaqab Cup, topping the 155cm contest at the Longines Arena at Al Shaqab. Puck guided Equitron Naxcel V to a flawless double clear round in 39.05 seconds to secure first place. Syria’s Mohamad Mogheeth Alshehab finished second riding Carlotto S in 40.67 seconds, while Kuwait’s Ali al-Khorafi claimed third position with a time of 41.43 seconds. A total of 15 riders competed in the class, with 13 securing placings. In the CSI3* Special Two Phases event at 1.35m, France’s Jean Francois Rondoux emerged victorious aboard Inter-Larus after clocking 27.28 seconds. Qatar’s Sheikh Fahad Jassim al-Thani finished second riding Lavesther in 28.81 seconds, followed by compatriot Saad Ahmed al-Saad on Gary de Cerisy in 29.22 seconds. The CSI1* Special Two Phases class at 1.10m saw Qatar’s Abdul Aziz Jassim al-Thani take first place riding Proud in 29.89 seconds. Abdulla Ahmed al-Khulaifi secured second position on Quenta van de Corsendonksehoeve in 30.02 seconds, while Saudi Arabia’s Halah al-Rasheed finished third aboard Cruising On The Ridge in 32.39 seconds. A total of 61 riders competed in the class, with 16 making the placings. On Thursday, Qatar’s Sultan Salem al-Naemi delivered an impressive double victory, winning the CSI3* Faults and Time class at 140cm riding Energika des Neyes with a clear round in 57.01 seconds. South Africa’s Matthew Morrison placed second aboard Quebec in 66.01 seconds, while Kuwait’s Yara Al-Hunaidi finished third on Valmira in 66.95 seconds. Al-Naemi continued his strong run by claiming first place in the CSI3* Faults and Time event at 130cm riding Cavallina 13 with a time of 56.52 seconds. Saudi Arabia’s Khalid Al-Hadi secured second position aboard Capoen in 57.49 seconds, narrowly ahead of American rider Kristen Vanderveen, who finished third riding Bull Run’s Creation in 57.51 seconds. In the CSI1* Faults and Time class at 125cm, Qatar’s Ibrahim Khalid al-Kuwari topped the standings riding Flexy Bel Z with a clear round in 57.36 seconds. Saudi Arabia’s Khalid al-Hadi placed second on Carlton de Sauvageonn in 57.40 seconds, while compatriot Salem Balharith finished third aboard Lovina in 59.41 seconds. Today, seven classes are scheduled across the one-star to three-star categories, with jumps ranging from 115cm to 150cm at the Longines Indoor and Outdoor Arenas in Al Shaqab, as the competition continues to showcase top regional and international talent. The Al Shaqab Cup has drawn more than 150 riders competing for a total prize purse of €784,000 in one of the season’s premier showjumping events. Source link
* Meloni weighs risky paths to stay in control* New vote law or even early elections now in play* Weak economy and Iran war add to political pressure Giorgia Meloni’s defeat in a justice reform referendum has thrust the Italian leader into the toughest phase of her premiership, with her authority weakened, her reform programme in tatters and no easy way to regain the initiative.The prime minister’s right-wing coalition suffered a resounding loss in the March 22-23 vote, puncturing the aura of political invincibility she has cultivated since taking office in 2022.As the result came in, Meloni made clear she had no plans to resign, but none of her options looks attractive, political analysts say.Governing as if nothing has changed risks leaving her a lame-duck prime minister, with the anaemic economy under growing strain and her closeness to US President Donald Trump seen by pollsters as an increasing liability.Alternatively, she could seek to reshape the electoral law to try to boost her chances of winning the next general election, due in 2027, but would open herself to charges of upending the rules to suit her political interests.A third option could be to gamble on forcing an early ballot this spring before the full impact of the Iran war hits Italy’s already fragile economy, hoping to catch the fragmented centre-left opposition unprepared. “It’s clear that what’s at stake is the end of the legislature. Even the date of the next election is uncertain,” said Nicola Lupo, director of the Centre for Parliamentary Studies at Rome’s Luiss University.OPPOSITION BLOC REMAINS FRAGMENTEDFor all the damage, the referendum did not amount to a blanket rejection of Meloni, with 37% of those who voted “No” telling Youtrend pollsters she should remain in office. “This wasn’t an opposition victory so much as a victory for the judiciary,” said Massimiliano Panarari, a political analyst at the University of Modena and Reggio Emilia.The centre-left opposition hailed Monday’s result as evidence the political cycle was turning its way, but its two main components, the Democratic Party and 5-Star Movement, remain deeply divided over key issues, including foreign policy. These splits could tempt Meloni to resign shortly and force a snap election, Luiss’ Lupo said, adding that the government had pushed for a swift referendum in March to have the eventual option of holding a pre-summer vote.”Meloni knows the next budget won’t allow for generous spending, so she might say it would be better to go to elections now and not give the opposition time to organise,” he said. While none of her allies are openly suggesting this, some of her partners — including Maurizio Lupi, head of the small “Us Moderates” party — are urging a change to the electoral law to introduce a system based solely on proportional representation.Latest polls show the conservative bloc, including Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party, the League and Forza Italia, in the lead, but vulnerable to defeat in a future ballot because of the way seats are distributed under the current system. Studies have suggested a pure PR system could give the ruling coalition a comfortable majority.Although government parties presented a draft bill on this last month, some of Meloni’s allies urged caution after the referendum, saying voters would not approve. “It would be stupid,” Stefano Candiani, a League lawmaker in the lower chamber, told Reuters. “There are so many problems facing Italians, including the Iran war and (high) cost of living, that anyone who wants to tie up parliament with this electoral law is crazy.”TRUMP TIES, WEAK ECONOMY DRAG ON MELONIPollsters confirmed an unexpectedly high turnout in the justice referendum was driven by voters motivated by broader political and economic concerns rather than the technical details of the complex judicial reform. “In the last 10 days, the number of people saying they would vote grew by 10 percentage points. We had never seen such a surge,” said pollster Antonio Noto.The referendum’s timing proved challenging for Meloni, with the US-Israeli war on Iran turning a spotlight on her friendship with Trump and costing her votes, analysts said. “Even if she has tried to put a bit of distance between herself and him in recent days, the shift hasn’t been very noticeable,” said political analyst Panarari.Meloni risks treading water for the next 12 months, with her reform agenda in shreds and little time left to enact meaningful change. “From this day forward, she is a lame duck,” said centrist leader Matteo Renzi, who quit as prime minister in 2016 after losing a referendum on his own constitutional reform agenda.He told La7 news channel that opposition parties would draw strength from Monday’s result, saying the Meloni-backed “Yes” camp had until recently enjoyed a big lead. “If beating Meloni in the referendum wasn’t easy, it will be far easier to beat her on issues like inflation, fuel taxes, the cost of living, and public safety in major cities,” he said. 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